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Talk anything else

Post  Brian on Sat 9 Feb - 0:57

Talk and share tactics, systems about any other betting

Please do not post any selections here
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Brian
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Re: Talk anything else

Post  Pauluk on Sun 10 Feb - 18:21

Lay 4-y-o hurdlers running against older horses (yesterdays (Sat) example Five Dream) lost. Simple system and has worked well in the past
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Re: Talk anything else

Post  geminitrading on Mon 11 Feb - 2:45

Received this email from a list I'm on regarding rugby and handicaps:-

How to get 19/1 on the result of one game of rugby

“The new rugby league Super League season gets underway in earnest
on Friday night – and I want to put you onto a betting strategy
that can win you good money throughout the whole season.

And when we’ve checked that out – we’ll zoom in for a bit of value
on a ‘special’ bet the bookies have just put up.

But first - here's how you obtain almost 19/1 for the result of one
rugby match…

Handicap opportunities

All of the top firms price up every Super League match as a
handicap, where they ask one team to give the other a points start,
and it's these handicaps which are our particular interest. You
will usually see them advertised like this:

Wigan v Hull (+10)

The handicap (+10 here) refers to the 'away' side, so if you wanted
to back the away side in a match, in this case Hull, you would add
10 to their match score. If Hull's match score, with the ten points
added, were then more than Wigan's match score, your bet would be a
winner. If you wanted to back Wigan on this handicap (-10), you
would deduct 10 from their match score.

Exactly how many points these teams give and receive depends on how
the odds compiler sees the game. And that's why you can sometimes
put yourself onto a 19-1 winner in a two-horse race…

Let's look at an ‘example’ game between the top side the Leeds
Rhinos and the struggling Salford Reds.

William Hill saw the match like this. Salford, a weaker side than
Leeds, playing 'away,' would need an eighteen-point start (+18
handicap). The Tote reckoned that the Reds would need even more,
twenty-four points start (+24).

Size matters…

Now that six point difference of opinion between the bookies'
handicaps is a significant amount, it's the equivalent of a try and
a conversion, and it's your cue to bet.

The best offer we can get for a Leeds handicap win is William
Hill’s 'minus eighteen points' (-18) and we take it. Let's say we
have a tenner on.

The most favourable handicap for Salford is the Tote's 'plus twenty
four points,' and we take that as well. We put a tenner on the
Salford Reds +24.

Now whatever happens in this game, we are guaranteed that one of
our bets is going to be a winner…

Guarantee a winner

Suppose that Leeds won by ten points, the bet we had with Hills,
Leeds 'minus eighteen points' would be a loser. But the bet we had
on Salford to win 'plus twenty four points' would be a winner.

Look at another instance. If Leeds won by thirty points, the bet we
had on them 'minus eighteen' would be the winner, and the bet on
Salford 'plus twenty four' would now be the loser. But whatever
score you care to think of, even if Salford had stunned the experts
and won the match, one of our bets will always be a winner.

Win TWICE…

If Leeds win, which I think you'll agree is the most likely
outcome, and if the margin of their victory is anywhere BETWEEN the
two handicaps we have taken, of minus eighteen points for them, and
plus twenty four for Salford, both of our bets will be landed. We
win twice.

And that's exactly what happened. Leeds won that game 42-20. So
both of the handicap bets were successful.

Leeds 42 Salford 20

Leeds (-18) = 24, which is higher than Salford’s match score of 20
– WIN
Salford (+24) = 44, which is higher than Leeds’ match score of 42 -
WIN

Bet number one. Leeds -18 points. Leeds score was 42, less 18
equals 24, which is higher than Salford’s match score of 20.

Bet number two. Salford +24 points. Salford’s score was 20, plus
24, equals 44, which is higher than Leeds match score of 42. So
both bets pay out.

Now bookies' odds for backing a winner on their Rugby handicaps are
usually 10/11. But if you've landed them both, as in this match,
you will actually be on a 19/1 winner…

Massive odds

If you have both bets at 10/11, and you are guaranteed that one of
them will win, what is your 'worst case scenario?' What is the most
that you can lose?

Ten quid on the winner returns you £19.08
Ten quid on the loser costs you £10
Total stake, £20. Worst possible return £19.08
Maximum loss possible = 92 pence

Now if you land BOTH bets, as you would have in the Leeds and
Salford game, it looks like this,

Ten quid on Leeds, returns £19.08
Ten quid on Salford, returns £19.08
Total return £38.16
Total profit £18.16
The maximum possible loss on these two bets - remember, one of them
MUST win - is 92 pence.

So if the most you can lose is 92p, and your winnings when you are
successful are £18.16p, then you have backed nearly a 19-1 winner.

That’s worked out like so: 18.16 divided by 0.92 = 19.74 (odds of
18.74/1).

Keep any eye on the bookies’ handicaps this season – and YOU can
pick up winners like this.

There really is no 'downside' to this bet. It works. And the bigger
the difference of opinion between bookies, the more often it works.

You will find that it will work most often as the season
progresses, and the odds compilers develop those differing opinions
about teams’ abilities.

Note: When you place your bets, it's a good idea to always make
your first call to the bookmaker whose handicap is the furthest
away from the industry 'norm.' He's the one who will get most calls
from backers.”

Any comments would be very welcome on this strategy.

Bill Very Happy

geminitrading

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Re: Talk anything else

Post  Brian on Mon 11 Feb - 3:00

Now this is new and may I say exciting! This is what I had hoped for in Betting School, new ways of betting and excellent information. Once again thanks Bill for bring this to our attention I am sure Tenzin Gatuso will be very interested in this Very Happy

Great stuff keep it coming!
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