Talk Football

Talk and share tactics, systems using Football bets.

Please do not post any selections here

My favourite bets!

This is how I make my living now, I don't see why you guys shouldn't see how it's done because I know for a fact that maybe one or two of you will stick with it, the rest won't!

One strategy I use every day (I used to post the selections on the other forum, some of you may remember) is to pick matches to 'lay the draw'. This strategy still has a strike rate of over 85% after 7+ months of bets.

1. Check which games the 'lay the draw' odds are less than 4

2. Go to http://www.betbrain.com and find the match

3. If one of the teams is 65% probability or more (home or away) then that's a definite bet.

Staking is very straightforward too, after a loss, increase the stake by 25% - then after the next winner leave the stake increased by 10% from the original
eg:- stake £10 - increase to £12.50 after a loser (stay at this level if another loser) - after next winner, increase original stake to £11 and keep it there until next loser, then stake would be £13.75 and so on.

Longest losing run? 4

Longest winning run? 17

Average lay odds? 3.8

Recommended minimum bank? £200 using initial £2 stakes

Try it out on paper for a while.

Bill

Later I'll give you another of my football strategies (not using betfair)

Cracking tactics and well thought out! thanks for starting this Bill

Brian wrote:Cracking tactics and well thought out! thanks for starting this Bill

Hopefully someone will give this a try and realise the possibilities!

Bill

BTW, here's a match to NOT bet on tomorrow - Cittadella v Foggia - short priced home team (1.95) and a very long priced away team (7) looks like a nailed on home win (maybe it is!) but betbrain is only 50% (home) with a 32% draw probability, so definitely a NO BET there!

Sounds good Bill!

I've been looking at trading on betfair seriously for the last few weeks now - that's why I've not been posting selections here.

Trying it on the 'nags' is a non-starter - you might as well toss a coin trying to guess the market direction! WOM indicators are a complete and utter waste of time (IMHO), unless someone out there knows how it's supposed to be done.

BUT, the footy betting market direction is fully predictable!

We all know the old, lay the draw then back it after a goal system. This only works if the fav scores at all and first.

The match odds market isn't the one I've been looking at.

The over/under 2.5 goals market is the one to trade and with the 'keep' bets option, you don't have to sit in front of the comp while the match is being played either!

Here's the system:-

1. Place a back bet on the Under 2.5 goals market, and make sure that it's been matched - I've been using £100 stakes.
2. Work out how much profit you want - I use £10 (10%) as my required profit - greened on both outcomes.
3. Place the correct lay bet and don't forget to check the 'keep' radio button and that's it!

The reasoning behind this system is as follows:-

As soon as the game kicks off, the odds start to drop immediately.
If there's no goal in the first 15 minutes, you usually matched your lay bet and won your profit.
If there is a goal in the first 15 minutes, then the odds do increase but then start to drop rapidly again and your bet will still get matched.
If there's a second goal scored before the odds drop to match your bet then you can still 'trade out' to make a small loss.
You can also back under 2.5 goals after a goal has been scored if you've made your profit on the first bet.

Results so far:-
150 bets
2 losses - £35 in total
Profit £1465

While writing this out, I've got a bet on the Aris Thes. v Atromitos match that has won the profit (the odds have dropped from 1.6 to 1.2), the bet was, back at 1.6 and lay at 1.45 to make the 10% profit.

Give it a serious look!!

Bill

Hi Bill
Interesting system, will give it a go.

One question I have is over what period are these 150 bets, do you do a few a day and how do you pick and choose your games? (that might be 3 questions).

Cheers

andy.mike wrote:Hi Bill
Interesting system, will give it a go.

One question I have is over what period are these 150 bets, do you do a few a day and how do you pick and choose your games? (that might be 3 questions).

Cheers

Hi Andy,
The bets were over a 5 week period, most were on Saturdays and Sundays.
Sometimes I had 10 bets running at once, a couple of times a day (tonight I've had 4 bets running at once - all KO'd at 7.45 - all winners btw).
I don't use any system to pick the games - any will do as long as there are under/over 2.5 available. I do tend to be more confident if the under 2.5 is the fav.
Hope this helps,
Bill

Hi Bill
Thanks for the swift reply. Excellent results.

Just one last question Bill, how do I select the keep bets selection button so I don't have to sit in front of the computer. I have had a look but cant see it - any help would be greatly appreciated.

Cheers
andy.mike

andy.mike wrote:Hi Bill
Thanks for the swift reply. Excellent results.

Just one last question Bill, how do I select the keep bets selection button so I don't have to sit in front of the computer. I have had a look but cant see it - any help would be greatly appreciated.

Cheers
andy.mike

Hi Andy,
When you place your bet (must be before the KO) and confirm it, look just above your bet and you'll see 2 'radio' buttons, one of which is 'keep', just click it and confirm.
Hope this helps!
Bill

Hi Bill

This system looks good but I need to ask if there needs to be a certain amount of liquidity in the market for this to work well.

For instance looking at this mornings in-play coupon for today, the first 2 up are 2 premiership games with lotrs of money bet on them. But the 3rd game hasn't had hardly any money bet on it. Would this affect the way the odds move when the game goes in play?

Just curious as to what games you would choose to bet on using this system.

Thanks

Scruff

scruffula wrote:Hi Bill

This system looks good but I need to ask if there needs to be a certain amount of liquidity in the market for this to work well.

For instance looking at this mornings in-play coupon for today, the first 2 up are 2 premiership games with lotrs of money bet on them. But the 3rd game hasn't had hardly any money bet on it. Would this affect the way the odds move when the game goes in play?

Just curious as to what games you would choose to bet on using this system.

Thanks

Scruff

Hi Scruff,
You are correct, you're more likely to get matched with a large amount of liquidity in the market.

The thing is though, as this only works on in-play games, there is usually enough money in there to make this work on any match.

Sometimes it might take a little longer to get the bet matched, but I can't think of one instance that I couldn't get a match.

Hope this helps!
Bill

PS Do you know of any other sport(s) where the odds are as predictable as football? We could end up with a bets 'famine' in the summer months!

Thanks for that Bill.

Had 3 successful bets using your method today. It does seem to work very well. I will have to look into using it in other 'predictable' sports.

Cheers.

Scruff

scruffula wrote:Thanks for that Bill.

Had 3 successful bets using your method today. It does seem to work very well. I will have to look into using it in other 'predictable' sports.

Cheers.

Scruff

Hi Scruff,
I'm pleased you've used the method and had some success with it! BTW, it works on the under 3.5 market too!
Bill

PS We need a low scoring sport for it to work - I'm wondering if baseball would fit the bill?

Back from holidays and what I great thread I see Well done Bill and thank you for sharing with us, it just goes to show that if we keep plodding on tryings thing out and ride out the bad times, we will come up with something that will make it all worth while! Imagine all of us doing the same! What a profitable forum this could be!

Brian wrote:Back from holidays and what I great thread I see Well done Bill and thank you for sharing with us, it just goes to show that if we keep plodding on tryings thing out and ride out the bad times, we will come up with something that will make it all worth while! Imagine all of us doing the same! What a profitable forum this could be!

Thanks for that Brian!

Been having a look for another sport to maybe try this system on (or a slight variation), and I'm thinking that ice hockey could be a possibility.

You can back +/-5.5 goals and some of the games go 'in-play' - disadvantage being the time difference!

I'll paper trade backing the fav in that market in the NHL league and see what happens.

Bill

Hi Bill

Have used your system in the last 2 days with 10 successfull bets and one failure. The one that let me down was the Roma game where 2 goals were scored in 2 minutes, so this leads me with a few questions which I can hopefully pick your brains for the answers if you would be so kind.

You say you use £100 stakes - is this £100 on the back bet only and then whatever extra you need to get the £10 profit. I only ask this as to get anywhere near a 10% profit on a TOTAL stake of £100 the difference between the back and lay bet is very high and therefore a risk of not getting matched especially if an early goal goes in. What sort of back and lay difference do you usually look at achieving as I don't like going more than .16.

Also you managed to trade out early goals for a small loss - do you achieve this on the same market? I ask this as I was unable to do this as the 2 goals in the Roma match shot the odds sky high.

If I can understand these last few things Bill, I can see no reason why this cannot be an excellent source of additional income as it seems to work fantastically.

Could I be extremely cheeky and ask you to post some of your selections you are actually using so I can get my head round the finer points of it.

Many thanks Bill

P.S. What about Rugby Union/League for additional sports with under/over points markets?

andy.mike wrote:Hi Bill

Have used your system in the last 2 days with 10 successfull bets and one failure. The one that let me down was the Roma game where 2 goals were scored in 2 minutes, so this leads me with a few questions which I can hopefully pick your brains for the answers if you would be so kind.

You say you use £100 stakes - is this £100 on the back bet only and then whatever extra you need to get the £10 profit. I only ask this as to get anywhere near a 10% profit on a TOTAL stake of £100 the difference between the back and lay bet is very high and therefore a risk of not getting matched especially if an early goal goes in. What sort of back and lay difference do you usually look at achieving as I don't like going more than .16.

Also you managed to trade out early goals for a small loss - do you achieve this on the same market? I ask this as I was unable to do this as the 2 goals in the Roma match shot the odds sky high.

If I can understand these last few things Bill, I can see no reason why this cannot be an excellent source of additional income as it seems to work fantastically.

Could I be extremely cheeky and ask you to post some of your selections you are actually using so I can get my head round the finer points of it.

Many thanks Bill

P.S. What about Rugby Union/League for additional sports with under/over points markets?

Hi Andy,
Sorry for the delay in answering you, I've been looking at another system (I'll spill it shortly!)
If you place a £100 back bet at, say, 1.6, then the odds only have to drop to 1.44 (and lay £111.11p) to make your green profit of £10 - that usually happens within the first 15 minutes of the match.

In the case of the Roma match (I was on it too), I traded out as soon as Roma scored their first goal, with a loss of £12. You are correct about the odds rocketing, so I backed the over 2.5, instead of laying under 2.5, to trade out of the bet, as there was more money waiting there.

I'm sorry that I didn't make that clear - if an early goal is scored, trade out immediately if you can. I use fairbot to trade, but betangel free will do the job as well.

As for posting my selections here, I just pick out matches that are going in-play where the lowest odds are on the under 2.5 side. If there are a shortage of games going in-play where the under 2.5 has the lowest odds, then I'll back the under 3.5 instead.

Try not to bet on too many games at once, unless you have www.flashscore.co.uk open with the 'my games' option set up and your PC sound on (you get a 'crowd roar' when any goal is scored).

Hope this helps,
Bill

Thanks for the reply Bill I understand it a bit better.

I have noticed aswell that it if you put your bet on early say 5 hours or more before kick off the odds for back under 2.5 goals goes up quite considerably before K.O. say from 1.68 to 2.8 in one case I noticed so the chances of you getting your lay matched is slim (unless there are no goals for the first half an hour or so.)
So in the future I am only going to place bets within an hour or half an hour before k.o.

Thanks again for sharing it, I look forward to your other system in the future.

andy.mike

andy.mike wrote:Thanks for the reply Bill I understand it a bit better.

I have noticed aswell that it if you put your bet on early say 5 hours or more before kick off the odds for back under 2.5 goals goes up quite considerably before K.O. say from 1.68 to 2.8 in one case I noticed so the chances of you getting your lay matched is slim (unless there are no goals for the first half an hour or so.)
So in the future I am only going to place bets within an hour or half an hour before k.o.

Thanks again for sharing it, I look forward to your other system in the future.

andy.mike

Hi Andy,
Yes, it's best to place your bets just before KO if possible, particularly if there's not a lot of money matched.

Sometimes I've actually layed the under 2.5 hours before KO then trade out for a small profit before KO, then placed my back bet.

The beauty of the under/over markets is their predictability!

The more you watch this market, the more you'll learn about it.

I've been looking at the over 2.5 market as well, it works exactly the opposite - it is sometimes possible to place a small back bet on the over market to absorb any possiblity of a loss on the unders market. This works pretty well in the lower english leagues where the scores are usually higher.

Did you know that overall, particularly in England, the average number of goals per match is 3?

Maybe to reduce risk we should only concentrate on the under/over 3.5 market and take a smaller profit? The only problem with this strategy is that betfair doesn't offer this bet on all in-play games!

Best wishes,
Bill

Question Bill (or anyone else reading this)

Why does sometimes the football market get suspended after a goal is scored? It's happened twice to me now (last night on the benfica game). Your back bet for under 2.5 goals gets matched before ko and because the market is suspended you can't get your lay matched. Any ideas? To clarify the market is suspended for the full 90mins.

Cheers

andy.mike wrote:Question Bill (or anyone else reading this)

Why does sometimes the football market get suspended after a goal is scored? It's happened twice to me now (last night on the benfica game). Your back bet for under 2.5 goals gets matched before ko and because the market is suspended you can't get your lay matched. Any ideas? To clarify the market is suspended for the full 90mins.

Cheers

Hi Andy,
This has happened to me once or twice too.

The match was supposed to be in-play but then got supended at KO. If you check the standard 'coupon', betfair then places the match in there.

Most annoying - I believe it happens if their 'feed' fails.

I asked the question on the betfair forum.

One match I had a bet on was actually live on sky sports but betfair wasn't getting their own feed through some technical problem.

Bill

Cheers Bill

It's worked once in my favour and once against i.e under 2.5 goals and over 2.5.
Suppose you have to try and trade out against another game to lessen any losses if it happens again.

Thanks again

andy.mike wrote:Cheers Bill

It's worked once in my favour and once against i.e under 2.5 goals and over 2.5.
Suppose you have to try and trade out against another game to lessen any losses if it happens again.

Thanks again

Hi Andy,
Yes, luck of the draw. It can be really frustrating though if you could have traded out during the 1st half and there has been 3 goals in the 2nd half - that's exactly what happened to me!!

BTW, nearly finalised my latest system idea. It's NOT a footy system though.

Bill

You would think Betfair would refund all bets on the market since its no fault of the 'punters' that their feed has gone down and the original market of 'live in play' is no longer available.

Anyway, looking forward to your new system Bill, hope it has as much potential as your 2.5 in play one.

I'm guessing from an earlier post you made it won't be the horses.

Hope all the games are 0-0 at half time today and tommorrow.

Cheers
andy.mike