Two Outcome Events

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Two Outcome Events

Post  geminitrading on Wed 12 Dec - 14:15

Apart from football where there are 3 possible reults (1,2 or X), does anyone know of a viable system for picking winners (or losers) from events with only 2 possible outcomes ie. Tennis, Snooker etc.?

I've been looking into the possiblity of (during a round of a tournament) laying, say, 3 or 4 odds-on favourites in a group and hoping at least 1 will lose to give a profit.

For example, yesterday during the snooker there were 3 possible matches:-

McCulloch v Maguire - lay Maguire @ 1.19
Bond v Junhui - lay Junhui @ 1.29
Williams v Allen - lay Allen @ 1.3
Total liabilty 0.78 points - as it turned out Williams won giving a profit of 0.52 points.

Does this have possibilities or do you think it's a waste of time for the small profit (less commission)?

I'd be grateful for your views and any other suggestions of how to bet on these 2 outcome events.

Bill Question

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Re: Two Outcome Events

Post  Brian on Wed 12 Dec - 15:08

A real good post Bill thanks, had you mentioned them bets yesterday I would have had a bet on them. When you bet on 3 or more events and the total liability does not even total one point, then it MUST be worth a bet!

Yes I agree a two way sport (boxing?) is worth looking at study

Does this have possibilities or do you think it's a waste of time for the small profit

Remember a dripping tap always fills the bucket Very Happy



:rendeer:
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Re: Two Outcome Events

Post  scruffula on Wed 12 Dec - 15:52

Unless the bucket has a hole in it!! Very Happy

(Mine invariably do)
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Re: Two Outcome Events

Post  geminitrading on Wed 12 Dec - 16:27

Brian wrote:A real good post Bill thanks, had you mentioned them bets yesterday I would have had a bet on them. When you bet on 3 or more events and the total liability does not even total one point, then it MUST be worth a bet!

Yes I agree a two way sport (boxing?) is worth looking at study

Does this have possibilities or do you think it's a waste of time for the small profit

Remember a dripping tap always fills the bucket Very Happy



:rendeer:

I was only looking at those bets as an idea to see if it was feasible - maybe should have had a punt!!

Thanks for your comments and encouragement. Other sports might include American Football, Basketball, Boxing - yes, Darts, etc etc.

Bill
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Re: Two Outcome Events

Post  geminitrading on Wed 12 Dec - 17:04

I've been checking out some stats on tennis matches.

If you avoid the 1st round of any tournament and only lay bet in the 2nd round onwards, then this method has possiblities.
(The 1st round appears to go to the favourite in over 95% of matches - might be worth backing them in this round only?)

From the 2nd round on, the favourite only wins around 65% of games, so there could be money to be made.

I believe the main tennis season starts in January - can anyone confirm that?

In the meantime I'll dig deeper into the stats, looking at the mens and ladies games seperately to see if there's any significant advantage betting in either.

Bill
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Re: Two Outcome Events

Post  scruffula on Wed 12 Dec - 17:17

Good luck Bill, it sounds like you may be on to something.
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Re: Two Outcome Events

Post  Brian on Thu 13 Dec - 2:11

Just a pointer Bill if you are looking for another market that can only have two outcomes, did you know there are two for racing on Betfair? AvB and the new one Distance study
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Re: Two Outcome Events

Post  geminitrading on Thu 13 Dec - 21:40

Brian wrote:Just a pointer Bill if you are looking for another market that can only have two outcomes, did you know there are two for racing on Betfair? AvB and the new one Distance study

Hi Brian - Yes, I was aware of those markets, I've not looked too closely at them as I'm not really a horse-racing fan. The distance one looks interesting though, stats must be available somewhere and definitely worth a look.
Thanks for that.
Bill Very Happy

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Re: Two Outcome Events

Post  geminitrading on Thu 13 Dec - 22:06

Regarding rugby - how frequently do the teams draw?

Betfair odds for the draw are huge!

Bill Question

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Re: Two Outcome Events

Post  geminitrading on Wed 19 Dec - 14:05

Looking at the PDC World Darts Championship results so far

Tuesday, 18 December, 2007
Ronald Scholten (Ned) bt Matt Clark (Eng) 3-2
Peter Manley (Eng) bt Toon Greebe (Ned) 3-2
Phil Taylor (Eng) bt Michael Van Gerwen (Ned) 3-2
Mervyn King (Eng) bt Michael Rosenauer (Ger) 3-2

Monday, 17 December, 2007
Alan Tabern (Eng) bt Per Laursen (Den) 3-1
Mark Walsh (Eng) bt Adrian Gray (Eng) 3-2
Wayne Mardle (Eng) bt Ray Carver (USA) 3-2
Han van der Rassel (Ned) bt Colin Lloyd (Eng) 3-2

I know absolutely nothing about this game BUT with 7 from 8 matches finishing 3-2, is there a possible earner to dutch both players to win 3-2 in the correct scores market?

Bill Very Happy

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Re: Two Outcome Events

Post  Brian on Wed 19 Dec - 14:13

Hi Bill looking at the A. Smith v Sulijovic - Correct Score match on the 21st the odds for this is

A. Smith 3 - 2 4.1

Suljovic 3 - 2 5.5

So yes there is one that is good to dutch, not looked at many more but I am sure they will not be too far off the same odds.
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Re: Two Outcome Events

Post  geminitrading on Wed 19 Dec - 14:23

Hi Brian,
There are a couple of matches that don't offer the +1.5 set handicap and they look close on paper:-

Anderson (4.4) v J. Clark (4.6) - Today - Won - Jason Clark bt Bob Anderson 3-2

Jones (4.2) v Eccles (4.4) - Tomorrow - Lost - Tony Eccles bt Wayne Jones 3-0

I'll give these 2 games a minimum bet.

Bill Very Happy

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