Talk Football

Talk and share tactics, systems using Football bets.

Please do not post any selections here

My favourite bets!

This is how I make my living now, I don't see why you guys shouldn't see how it's done because I know for a fact that maybe one or two of you will stick with it, the rest won't!

One strategy I use every day (I used to post the selections on the other forum, some of you may remember) is to pick matches to 'lay the draw'. This strategy still has a strike rate of over 85% after 7+ months of bets.

1. Check which games the 'lay the draw' odds are less than 4

2. Go to http://www.betbrain.com and find the match

3. If one of the teams is 65% probability or more (home or away) then that's a definite bet.

Staking is very straightforward too, after a loss, increase the stake by 25% - then after the next winner leave the stake increased by 10% from the original
eg:- stake £10 - increase to £12.50 after a loser (stay at this level if another loser) - after next winner, increase original stake to £11 and keep it there until next loser, then stake would be £13.75 and so on.

Longest losing run? 4

Longest winning run? 17

Average lay odds? 3.8

Recommended minimum bank? £200 using initial £2 stakes

Try it out on paper for a while.

Bill

Later I'll give you another of my football strategies (not using betfair)

Cracking tactics and well thought out! thanks for starting this Bill

Brian wrote:Cracking tactics and well thought out! thanks for starting this Bill

Hopefully someone will give this a try and realise the possibilities!

Bill

BTW, here's a match to NOT bet on tomorrow - Cittadella v Foggia - short priced home team (1.95) and a very long priced away team (7) looks like a nailed on home win (maybe it is!) but betbrain is only 50% (home) with a 32% draw probability, so definitely a NO BET there!

Sounds good Bill!

I've been looking at trading on betfair seriously for the last few weeks now - that's why I've not been posting selections here.

Trying it on the 'nags' is a non-starter - you might as well toss a coin trying to guess the market direction! WOM indicators are a complete and utter waste of time (IMHO), unless someone out there knows how it's supposed to be done.

BUT, the footy betting market direction is fully predictable!

We all know the old, lay the draw then back it after a goal system. This only works if the fav scores at all and first.

The match odds market isn't the one I've been looking at.

The over/under 2.5 goals market is the one to trade and with the 'keep' bets option, you don't have to sit in front of the comp while the match is being played either!

Here's the system:-

1. Place a back bet on the Under 2.5 goals market, and make sure that it's been matched - I've been using £100 stakes.
2. Work out how much profit you want - I use £10 (10%) as my required profit - greened on both outcomes.
3. Place the correct lay bet and don't forget to check the 'keep' radio button and that's it!

The reasoning behind this system is as follows:-

As soon as the game kicks off, the odds start to drop immediately.
If there's no goal in the first 15 minutes, you usually matched your lay bet and won your profit.
If there is a goal in the first 15 minutes, then the odds do increase but then start to drop rapidly again and your bet will still get matched.
If there's a second goal scored before the odds drop to match your bet then you can still 'trade out' to make a small loss.
You can also back under 2.5 goals after a goal has been scored if you've made your profit on the first bet.

Results so far:-
150 bets
2 losses - £35 in total
Profit £1465

While writing this out, I've got a bet on the Aris Thes. v Atromitos match that has won the profit (the odds have dropped from 1.6 to 1.2), the bet was, back at 1.6 and lay at 1.45 to make the 10% profit.

Give it a serious look!!

Bill

Hi Bill
Interesting system, will give it a go.

One question I have is over what period are these 150 bets, do you do a few a day and how do you pick and choose your games? (that might be 3 questions).

Cheers

andy.mike wrote:Hi Bill
Interesting system, will give it a go.

One question I have is over what period are these 150 bets, do you do a few a day and how do you pick and choose your games? (that might be 3 questions).

Cheers

Hi Andy,
The bets were over a 5 week period, most were on Saturdays and Sundays.
Sometimes I had 10 bets running at once, a couple of times a day (tonight I've had 4 bets running at once - all KO'd at 7.45 - all winners btw).
I don't use any system to pick the games - any will do as long as there are under/over 2.5 available. I do tend to be more confident if the under 2.5 is the fav.
Hope this helps,
Bill

Hi Bill
Thanks for the swift reply. Excellent results.

Just one last question Bill, how do I select the keep bets selection button so I don't have to sit in front of the computer. I have had a look but cant see it - any help would be greatly appreciated.

Cheers
andy.mike

andy.mike wrote:Hi Bill
Thanks for the swift reply. Excellent results.

Just one last question Bill, how do I select the keep bets selection button so I don't have to sit in front of the computer. I have had a look but cant see it - any help would be greatly appreciated.

Cheers
andy.mike

Hi Andy,
When you place your bet (must be before the KO) and confirm it, look just above your bet and you'll see 2 'radio' buttons, one of which is 'keep', just click it and confirm.
Hope this helps!
Bill

Hi Bill

This system looks good but I need to ask if there needs to be a certain amount of liquidity in the market for this to work well.

For instance looking at this mornings in-play coupon for today, the first 2 up are 2 premiership games with lotrs of money bet on them. But the 3rd game hasn't had hardly any money bet on it. Would this affect the way the odds move when the game goes in play?

Just curious as to what games you would choose to bet on using this system.

Thanks

Scruff

scruffula wrote:Hi Bill

This system looks good but I need to ask if there needs to be a certain amount of liquidity in the market for this to work well.

For instance looking at this mornings in-play coupon for today, the first 2 up are 2 premiership games with lotrs of money bet on them. But the 3rd game hasn't had hardly any money bet on it. Would this affect the way the odds move when the game goes in play?

Just curious as to what games you would choose to bet on using this system.

Thanks

Scruff

Hi Scruff,
You are correct, you're more likely to get matched with a large amount of liquidity in the market.

The thing is though, as this only works on in-play games, there is usually enough money in there to make this work on any match.

Sometimes it might take a little longer to get the bet matched, but I can't think of one instance that I couldn't get a match.

Hope this helps!
Bill

PS Do you know of any other sport(s) where the odds are as predictable as football? We could end up with a bets 'famine' in the summer months!

Thanks for that Bill.

Had 3 successful bets using your method today. It does seem to work very well. I will have to look into using it in other 'predictable' sports.

Cheers.

Scruff

scruffula wrote:Thanks for that Bill.

Had 3 successful bets using your method today. It does seem to work very well. I will have to look into using it in other 'predictable' sports.

Cheers.

Scruff

Hi Scruff,
I'm pleased you've used the method and had some success with it! BTW, it works on the under 3.5 market too!
Bill

PS We need a low scoring sport for it to work - I'm wondering if baseball would fit the bill?

Back from holidays and what I great thread I see Well done Bill and thank you for sharing with us, it just goes to show that if we keep plodding on tryings thing out and ride out the bad times, we will come up with something that will make it all worth while! Imagine all of us doing the same! What a profitable forum this could be!