Talk Football

Brian wrote:Back from holidays and what I great thread I see Well done Bill and thank you for sharing with us, it just goes to show that if we keep plodding on tryings thing out and ride out the bad times, we will come up with something that will make it all worth while! Imagine all of us doing the same! What a profitable forum this could be!

Thanks for that Brian!

Been having a look for another sport to maybe try this system on (or a slight variation), and I'm thinking that ice hockey could be a possibility.

You can back +/-5.5 goals and some of the games go 'in-play' - disadvantage being the time difference!

I'll paper trade backing the fav in that market in the NHL league and see what happens.

Bill

Hi Bill

Have used your system in the last 2 days with 10 successfull bets and one failure. The one that let me down was the Roma game where 2 goals were scored in 2 minutes, so this leads me with a few questions which I can hopefully pick your brains for the answers if you would be so kind.

You say you use £100 stakes - is this £100 on the back bet only and then whatever extra you need to get the £10 profit. I only ask this as to get anywhere near a 10% profit on a TOTAL stake of £100 the difference between the back and lay bet is very high and therefore a risk of not getting matched especially if an early goal goes in. What sort of back and lay difference do you usually look at achieving as I don't like going more than .16.

Also you managed to trade out early goals for a small loss - do you achieve this on the same market? I ask this as I was unable to do this as the 2 goals in the Roma match shot the odds sky high.

If I can understand these last few things Bill, I can see no reason why this cannot be an excellent source of additional income as it seems to work fantastically.

Could I be extremely cheeky and ask you to post some of your selections you are actually using so I can get my head round the finer points of it.

Many thanks Bill

P.S. What about Rugby Union/League for additional sports with under/over points markets?

andy.mike wrote:Hi Bill

Have used your system in the last 2 days with 10 successfull bets and one failure. The one that let me down was the Roma game where 2 goals were scored in 2 minutes, so this leads me with a few questions which I can hopefully pick your brains for the answers if you would be so kind.

You say you use £100 stakes - is this £100 on the back bet only and then whatever extra you need to get the £10 profit. I only ask this as to get anywhere near a 10% profit on a TOTAL stake of £100 the difference between the back and lay bet is very high and therefore a risk of not getting matched especially if an early goal goes in. What sort of back and lay difference do you usually look at achieving as I don't like going more than .16.

Also you managed to trade out early goals for a small loss - do you achieve this on the same market? I ask this as I was unable to do this as the 2 goals in the Roma match shot the odds sky high.

If I can understand these last few things Bill, I can see no reason why this cannot be an excellent source of additional income as it seems to work fantastically.

Could I be extremely cheeky and ask you to post some of your selections you are actually using so I can get my head round the finer points of it.

Many thanks Bill

P.S. What about Rugby Union/League for additional sports with under/over points markets?

Hi Andy,
Sorry for the delay in answering you, I've been looking at another system (I'll spill it shortly!)
If you place a £100 back bet at, say, 1.6, then the odds only have to drop to 1.44 (and lay £111.11p) to make your green profit of £10 - that usually happens within the first 15 minutes of the match.

In the case of the Roma match (I was on it too), I traded out as soon as Roma scored their first goal, with a loss of £12. You are correct about the odds rocketing, so I backed the over 2.5, instead of laying under 2.5, to trade out of the bet, as there was more money waiting there.

I'm sorry that I didn't make that clear - if an early goal is scored, trade out immediately if you can. I use fairbot to trade, but betangel free will do the job as well.

As for posting my selections here, I just pick out matches that are going in-play where the lowest odds are on the under 2.5 side. If there are a shortage of games going in-play where the under 2.5 has the lowest odds, then I'll back the under 3.5 instead.

Try not to bet on too many games at once, unless you have www.flashscore.co.uk open with the 'my games' option set up and your PC sound on (you get a 'crowd roar' when any goal is scored).

Hope this helps,
Bill

Thanks for the reply Bill I understand it a bit better.

I have noticed aswell that it if you put your bet on early say 5 hours or more before kick off the odds for back under 2.5 goals goes up quite considerably before K.O. say from 1.68 to 2.8 in one case I noticed so the chances of you getting your lay matched is slim (unless there are no goals for the first half an hour or so.)
So in the future I am only going to place bets within an hour or half an hour before k.o.

Thanks again for sharing it, I look forward to your other system in the future.

andy.mike

andy.mike wrote:Thanks for the reply Bill I understand it a bit better.

I have noticed aswell that it if you put your bet on early say 5 hours or more before kick off the odds for back under 2.5 goals goes up quite considerably before K.O. say from 1.68 to 2.8 in one case I noticed so the chances of you getting your lay matched is slim (unless there are no goals for the first half an hour or so.)
So in the future I am only going to place bets within an hour or half an hour before k.o.

Thanks again for sharing it, I look forward to your other system in the future.

andy.mike

Hi Andy,
Yes, it's best to place your bets just before KO if possible, particularly if there's not a lot of money matched.

Sometimes I've actually layed the under 2.5 hours before KO then trade out for a small profit before KO, then placed my back bet.

The beauty of the under/over markets is their predictability!

The more you watch this market, the more you'll learn about it.

I've been looking at the over 2.5 market as well, it works exactly the opposite - it is sometimes possible to place a small back bet on the over market to absorb any possiblity of a loss on the unders market. This works pretty well in the lower english leagues where the scores are usually higher.

Did you know that overall, particularly in England, the average number of goals per match is 3?

Maybe to reduce risk we should only concentrate on the under/over 3.5 market and take a smaller profit? The only problem with this strategy is that betfair doesn't offer this bet on all in-play games!

Best wishes,
Bill

Question Bill (or anyone else reading this)

Why does sometimes the football market get suspended after a goal is scored? It's happened twice to me now (last night on the benfica game). Your back bet for under 2.5 goals gets matched before ko and because the market is suspended you can't get your lay matched. Any ideas? To clarify the market is suspended for the full 90mins.

Cheers

andy.mike wrote:Question Bill (or anyone else reading this)

Why does sometimes the football market get suspended after a goal is scored? It's happened twice to me now (last night on the benfica game). Your back bet for under 2.5 goals gets matched before ko and because the market is suspended you can't get your lay matched. Any ideas? To clarify the market is suspended for the full 90mins.

Cheers

Hi Andy,
This has happened to me once or twice too.

The match was supposed to be in-play but then got supended at KO. If you check the standard 'coupon', betfair then places the match in there.

Most annoying - I believe it happens if their 'feed' fails.

I asked the question on the betfair forum.

One match I had a bet on was actually live on sky sports but betfair wasn't getting their own feed through some technical problem.

Bill

Cheers Bill

It's worked once in my favour and once against i.e under 2.5 goals and over 2.5.
Suppose you have to try and trade out against another game to lessen any losses if it happens again.

Thanks again

andy.mike wrote:Cheers Bill

It's worked once in my favour and once against i.e under 2.5 goals and over 2.5.
Suppose you have to try and trade out against another game to lessen any losses if it happens again.

Thanks again

Hi Andy,
Yes, luck of the draw. It can be really frustrating though if you could have traded out during the 1st half and there has been 3 goals in the 2nd half - that's exactly what happened to me!!

BTW, nearly finalised my latest system idea. It's NOT a footy system though.

Bill

You would think Betfair would refund all bets on the market since its no fault of the 'punters' that their feed has gone down and the original market of 'live in play' is no longer available.

Anyway, looking forward to your new system Bill, hope it has as much potential as your 2.5 in play one.

I'm guessing from an earlier post you made it won't be the horses.

Hope all the games are 0-0 at half time today and tommorrow.

Cheers
andy.mike

andy.mike wrote:You would think Betfair would refund all bets on the market since its no fault of the 'punters' that their feed has gone down and the original market of 'live in play' is no longer available.

Anyway, looking forward to your new system Bill, hope it has as much potential as your 2.5 in play one.

I'm guessing from an earlier post you made it won't be the horses.

Hope all the games are 0-0 at half time today and tommorrow.

Cheers
andy.mike

Hi Andy,

I agree with you that betfair should void bets on games that don't go in-play,

It has been a good day so far, I've managed 12 wins with no losses so far. How've you done?

You are correct, the new system is definitely not on the horses!

I'll let you know after a bit more testing. The rules will be really simple, I hate systems that have loads of rules, guess I'm too impatient!!

Hope our luck holds on the under 2.5 system!

Bill

PS Seems to be a waste of time posting system ideas here, getting very little feedback, except from yourself of course.

PS Seems to be a waste of time posting system ideas here, getting very little feedback, except from yourself of course.

I for one are watching Bill & I am sure others are too, keep up the good work as you are helping to make money for the members that are following you, but it is a shame only AndyMike is posting any interest.

What we will do with working systems like this in the future, is take them off and email them to the people that showed interest, then anyone who did not bother to post will be left in the dark & it will be their own fault.

12 wins no losses for me either Bill.

Wish I was using your stakes though would have won over a ton yesterday. I'm using very small stakes and trying to build my bank up so I can increase my back bet. (Don't want to lend me a grand do you Bill )

The only problem I have is I cant always trade out as I'm not sat in front of the computer all day but hopefully I can start to pick and choose the games i.e. teams that dont score that many as a general rule.

£10 profit a day would be great for me and this system comes up trumps at the moment.

Cheers
andy.mike

Brian wrote:

PS Seems to be a waste of time posting system ideas here, getting very little feedback, except from yourself of course.

I for one are watching Bill & I am sure others are too, keep up the good work as you are helping to make money for the members that are following you, but it is a shame only AndyMike is posting any interest.

What we will do with working systems like this in the future, is take them off and email them to the people that showed interest, then anyone who did not bother to post will be left in the dark & it will be their own fault.

Hi Brian,
I know you watch this thread too and I hope you've been following them as well!

It just shows that even a reasonable system can't generate a lot of interest.

I realise that the main interest in betting appears to be the horses, so that may explain the lack of posters?

I like your idea about emailing only those who are interested in particular systems.

Bill

The problem might be as explained on main forum page under IS THIS FORUM THE PROBLEM? I am sure that there are just as many interested in footy as there is football I have no doubt about that